个性化 & 大规模定制 & 体验经济时代

2002-11-16《新远见》杂志 　本刊记者 李思涯/文

2000年3月号的《新周刊》曾对中国兴起的第一次城市运动而引发的城市败笔进行了一次总结和批判

　　中国城市十大败笔

　　强暴旧城

　　旧城的破坏业已成为上个世纪中国城市建设者们最短见的城市行为。

　　疯狂克隆

　　越来越多的人发现中国城市越来越相像，当代中国建筑能贡献给人类文化什么东西呢?

　　胡乱“标志”

　　以最新最高最现代的建筑作为城市的标志性建筑，是目前中国城市标志性建筑和景观热中的一大误区。

　　攀高比傻

　　高楼大厦成了中国城市现代化的代名词。

　　密密麻麻的高楼大厦真的就是中国现代化标志吗?

　　盲目国际化

　　截至1996年底，全国有86家城市喊出建立国际大都市的口号。

　　窒息环境

　　欲望的扩张和对金钱的渴望窒息了建筑艺术。

　　乱抢风头

　　一个地域的多个建筑很难协调成一组和谐优美的城市交响乐。

　　永远塞车(或扎堆市中心)

　　不考虑城市远郊开发，只在市中心周围地区规划建设，结果必然是“摊大饼”，首当其冲的后果是永远塞车。

　　“假古董”当道

　　各地仿古建筑的大兴土木，不惜以破坏城市生态为代价。

　　跟人较劲

　　看上去面光光、住进去心慌慌，这就是没有亲和力的城市和建筑所能带给我们的物质和精神生活。

　　一个名为《帝国》的电脑游戏风行至今，据说已经出到了第六代。在那个游戏中，当你所代表的群落文明进化了、经济实力上升了，就该建城了。城市等级的高低，是你抵御侵略和侵略别人的基础，也是游戏成败的关键。而游戏成功的标志就是：把你的对手连人带城全部消灭。

　　城市是文明的摇篮，也是文明的杀手；

　　城市是人类的创造，也是人性的毁灭；

　　城市是一种游戏，又不是一种游戏。

　　很多人在虚拟世界里玩着这种城市的游戏，更多的人在现实世界里也在玩着这种游戏。只不过，那更不像是游戏了。

　　　“城市化”是现今非常流行、非常现代、也非常理性的一个词汇，中国城市化的进程也正是中国现代化进程的一个标志。改革开放以来，新兴城市如雨后春笋，多少农村和村里的人，都在一夜之间变成了城市和城里人。没有人能阻止经济大发展下的中国城市化进程。

　　其实，现今已经没有多少人在阻止这种进程了，推进的人却实在不少。于是便出现了问题：城市化是经济发展使然，还是人的推动使然？

　　这两者区别很大。经济发展的推动叫作水到渠成。而人的推动呢？很容易成为“运动”。

　　《新周刊》曾在一篇文章中说到：“好大喜功的官员、利欲薰心的开发商和弱智的设计师的斗争，半个世纪以来几乎从来就没有停止过，即便收效甚微也难以遏止人们对高品质城市生活要求的坚定捍卫和出于良知和责任感对城市建设中所存在问题义正辞严的批评。”

　　这句话说得很带劲。

　　有一个童话，说天鹅、螃蟹、狗、猫和梭子鱼一起拉车，车最后往哪儿走，就很难说了。

　　经济的推动是一股力，而再加上官员的政绩、开发商的私利、设计师的名利、业主的小利，城市化的行走就难免让城市人自己都看不清楚了。对城市命运的担心油然而生。

　　所以，我们需要批判。

　　所以，批判贵如金。

　　《南方周末》说：上个世纪80年代，中国城市运动走入了第一次激情，现在出现的新一轮城市运动是第二次激情。

　　2000年，《新周刊》针对第一次运动总结出了“中国城市十大败笔”；而今天，我们推出了“新城市运动十大批判”。

　　两次激情相隔两年，但却激越在两个不同的世纪；两次总结相隔两年，但却蕴含着历史的天然承接。

　　所以，看“十大批判”，最好把“十大败笔”放在手边，然后你会发现，历史这面镜子，告诉你的一定会更多。

　　古龙小说里有个人物叫燕十三，他的江湖绝技叫“夺命十三剑”。但是，他最厉害的一招却是第十四剑，几乎无人能敌。最后，还有更厉害的第十五剑。

　　当然，第十五剑杀死的是他自己。

　　我们的批判是“十大”，但最后有个第十一大批判，绝对不能错过。如果你能够用调侃的心态看完“十大批判”，却绝对要用严肃的表情去读那“第十一大批判”，因为，它实在太重、太重了。

　　或许还有“第十二大”，但我们实在不愿去总结和发现了，因为我们担心，那第十二个会杀掉我们的城市和我们自己。

　　让我们一起走进批判的境界吧。

　　疯狂CBD【批判之一】

　　前一段一些大城市里试行个性化车牌，没几天就停止了，因为一些流行的英文缩写被个性选用，引起了人们的争论，包括CEO、WTO、SEX……还有CBD。

　　记者与北京的一位出租车司机进行了一段随机性的对话：

　　问：“你知道CBD吗？”

　　答：“知道。”

　　问：“那是什么意思？”

　　答：“就是北京要建的那个，现在满大街都在嚷嚷的。”

　　问：“可CBD到底是个什么东西？”

　　答：“呦……我还真说不清楚……就是……可能类似于　高尚社区？……这你别问我了，那是有学问人的东西，咱搞不清楚。”

　　那位司机师傅很不好意思。其实他大可不必。在北京一家高档写字楼，记者与一位衣冠楚楚的绝对白领也进行了一段对话：

　　问：“你知道什么是CBD吗？”

　　答：“可能是个金融中心吧。”

　　问：“那和金融街有什么区别？”

　　答：“差不多吧。”

　　问：“CBD有什么特点？”

　　答：“不知道。”

　　其实这位白领也不必汗颜。如果记者与一些政府官员进行随机的对话，得到的结论也不一定就能怎么样。

　　但是，CBD在风行。

　　CBD的英文全称是Central Business District，中文直译“中央商务区”，上世纪20年代由美国学者提出的概念，其直观的特征是：建筑密度高，商务活动集中。

　　上海10年前就开始建设CBD。作为世界知名的金融贸易中心，可谓名副其实。

　　北京在很多人眼里一直是个有些保守但又不想让人说的城市，2000年推出CBD的概念，并且大张旗鼓。作为政治文化中心，也算实至名归。

　　但是，当国内近20个大中城市在一两年间相继挥笔特书CBD文章的时候，则让人感到“运动来了”。

　　9月中旬，20多个城市的市长和规划局长云集京城，召开了“中外CBD发展论坛”，认认真真地学习别人一个世纪前的东西，则难免让人感到——“疯了！”

　　一个不太发达的城市的主要负责人在一次内部会议上说：“要真正让人服气，就得弄出个大动作来，凭现在这样子人家服你吗？”于是，这个城市辟出了3000多亩的空地，修建一个700多公顷的湖面，围湖兴建CBD。“不是西湖，胜似西湖。

What is mass customization? There is a wide variety of understandings and meanings of mass customization: "Extant literature has not established good conceptual boundaries for mass customization", state Duray et al. (2000, p. 606) after a literature review. The same is true for managers and consultants who use the term mass customization nowadays in many forms. In the following, I will share the points which are - from my perspective - the most important ones and which are characterizing the concept.

What is mass customization? There is a wide variety of understandings and meanings of mass customization: "Extant literature has not established good conceptual boundaries for mass customization", state Duray et al. (2000, p. 606) after a literature review. The same is true for managers and consultants who use the term mass customization nowadays in many forms. In the following, I will share the points which are - from my perspective - the most important ones and which are characterizing the concept.

Customize your time: Mass Customization in the watch industry - Microsoft's SPOT watches, Swatch Via d. Spiga, and Factory 1to1

In the age of the cell phone, who needs still a watch? All of us - but more and more not to get the time but to express our personality. Watches are one of the most prominent fashion items and a dominant matter of self expression. Thus, customization of watches is a very interesting field to study. While different companies started several attempts to offer customized watches within the last decade, I would consider few of the existing offers as a serious and professional move towards mass customization. Many companies are either small start up operations with limited scope or professional management of the customization processes, or they do not offer real customization but only small series (e.g., logo watches for promotion activities). But recently, there is a change, and more serious initiatives to customize watches on a real one to one base are approaching.

Microsoft SPOT watches

Bill Gates of Microsoft recently announced plans to use watches as a transponder for customized services. Teaming up with Fossil Inc., Suunto and Citizen Watch Co. Ltd., Gates presented in January 2003 a concept wristwatch based on Microsoft's Smart Personal Objects Technology (SPOT). With compelling features such as customizable watch faces, access to personal messages and appointments, and the ability to receive up-to-date news, traffic, weather and sports information, the watches are the first wave of smart objects that shall extend Microsoft's reach from personal computing to everyday objects. However, first models are expected to be available not before fall 2003. But it will be very interesting to see how these companies bundle hard and soft customization around the physical product and accompanying services.

Two other great examples of mass customization of watches are already available, both focusing on the (aesthetic) design level of customization:

Swiss based watch customizer Factory121 opened its Internet store some months before, and launched officially in April 2003. This is not only the best customization site in the watch industry, but also one of the best configuration systems in all categories. Why? See below.

But let's first have a look on the customization initiative of a big and established player in the industry: Swatch. This brand is sometimes quoted as an example of mass customization - but it is not. Swatch is a typical example of a variant manufacturer that has the capabilities to bring out a huge quantity of variants and collections in a short time. However, customers can only select between made-to-stock products out of a huge variety.

Swatch Via della Spiga

After two very successful decades, the brand lost some of its original power in the last couple of years. While in former times Swatch could handle forecasting and product planning pretty easily as demand was so strong that even not so popular models could be sold without problems, new competition (trends) and an too established brand name force the company to go new ways. One approach to redefine the brand is the introduction of new (standard) models breaking with the traditional product platforms. Another tactic is customization which was recently introduced quietly in one concept store and is now in a pilot phase.

"Experience the language of fashion - you become the artist and accessorize your own Swatch." This is the advertising claim of Swatch's Via della Spiga concept store in Milan, Europe's fashion and style metropolis #1. Placed in the trend setting arena of the city where all big international designers have their stores, Swatch tries to update its image by using the latest fashion details of the surrounding designers for a very special collection of watches. "Catwalk details, chic styling, fabric trimming, edgy appliqués, unexpected coupling of materials, textile variants, enhancers such as crystals, feathers, fun fur, chandelier strands, studs, stones, ribbons, snaps, buckles, and beads await you. It's a chance to indulge your personality. Define your fashion silhouette," says the catalogue.

I visited the store three weeks ago. It looks much more boutique than the standard swatch store, more like a fashionable jewelry store. First of all you recognize a really beautiful collection of ready-made watches which are only available in this store, however, pre-configured. In a second room, a workshops appears. Here, as demonstrated in a video, customers can design their own (women's) watches. Breaking with the traditional concept, clients choose from pre-assembled watch bodies and combine them with a made-to-measure jelly ribbon plastic band that is supposed to be turned around one's wrist, ankle, neck or waist several times. The band can be decorated with heart, flower and star crystal appliqués, and even filled with different objects like small pearls or stars. The results is a very special look (you can get an idea on http://www.swatch.com, go to the "Via della Spiga" section). All custom assembling is done by the client with the help of a sales clerk on the spot. Watches are priced between 37 and 100 Euro.

While the extent of customization is not going very far, and the total approach is rather simple, this is one of the most striking examples of a new customization trend that goes beyond the traditional differentiation advantages of mass customization:

• Swatch uses customization in this store as an expression of self, as a concept to redefine its brand. While in former times a single, often famous professional designer was featured creating a special watch, in this concept the individual customer and its creativity and personal style is in the center of the product design. This is a total change of thinking.
  
  
• However, the product family design and constraints of the product system stop "bad design". Even if users have plenty of choices, restrictions prevent that the Swatch brand image is spoiled by bad consumer co-design.
  
  
• The open store atmosphere and the public workshop invite a community driven co-design. While in most mass customization applications individuality means also a one-to-one configuration process, the Swatch store provides the platform for a community of users to create an individual piece jointly. Using virtual and real-life communities to support mass customization is a concept that got just recently growing attention.

I am curious to see how this system develops: is it only a short pilot or the starting point of a larger movement? I will keep you posted.

Factory 121

In the watch-making industry, high quality "Swiss made" brands have been out of the reach of the majority of watch buyers - if they didn't want to get a Swatch. The intention of mass customization pioneer Factory121 is to close this gap. Frédéric Polli, one of its founders states it very clearly: "Margins and cost structures in the classic watch distribution channels are a major obstacle to the positioning of 'Swiss made' watches for the majority of watch buyers. New information technologies, like the internet, give us the ability to offer the excellent quality of Swiss watches to ordinary buyers under different conditions."

But the firm does much more than just bypassing the traditional sales channel. On Factory121's Internet site, users can co-design their very own wristwatch. After several years of planning, product development, marketing tests, and technology development Factory121 opened its (virtual) doors at the beginning of this year. The visible center of Factory121 is its web site, developed over a two-year period under the lead of Pete Beck, CEO of Brighton based Electrostrata LTD (http://www. electrostrata.com).

I had the opportunity to follow the development of this company since a longer period of time, and even if I had an idea of what would come up, I was really expressed when the official site launched. What makes this mass customization site an foremost exemplar for its industry (and mass customization in general, make sure that you interact with the site at http://www.factory121.com):

• The customer co-design process begins with a watch model that is already partially assembled. By presenting this pre-configuration, complexity is reduced. However, the combinations offered are almost infinite.
  
  
• As in the case of Swatch, the product family design prevents "bad design". Restrictions of choice prevent that a specific style is spoiled by "bad" consumer co-design.
  
  
• The 3-D quality of the design tools delivers a great user experience. Speed and feedback of the site are excellent. Virtual images are created in real-time depending upon the uses' choices. The interaction and animation elements of the Internet site are based on Java, a mature, reliable and popular technology that does not demand any plug-in.
  
  
• Users get a game-like interactive experience in which they perceive themselves living a unique and fun buying process ("flow experience"). When designing and purchasing a watch from Factory121 the buying process becomes an important part of the product - and, thus, an important driver of customer satisfaction.
  
  
• Despite the nice design and experience, the site offers also plenty of explanations and product information. Just have a look at the customized product description once you finished the customization process.
  
  
• The site supports price customization. It enables customers to design a watch within the constraints of their personal budget. Therefore, just by choosing, e.g., a leather strap over a stainless steal one, clients can choose an option suiting their budget. As customers work through each category of components, colors and selections, they are always aware of how their design choices are impacting the watch's final price. Doing so, Factory121 is one of the few examples using modular pricing.

The site is supplemented by high customer service. The firm operates own repair centers in its most important international markets, free shipping, and a strong quality guaranty. As buyers cannot physically touch the watch they are ordering, Factory 121 guarantees that, in case of any problems, the product will be exchanged or taken back after repayment in ten days without any question.

The price paid by customers (between 120 and 200 Euro) represents very much a mass customization cost structure - and is much below the average price of a standard Swiss watch of this category. Costs and distribution margins which can easily reach two thirds of a watch's price in a traditional distribution system have disappeared in this model. This enables Factory121 to invest heavily in the maintenance and development of the firm's online platform - and to counterbalance the additional manufacturing and transaction (handling) costs of dealing with individual customers' orders.

As soon as an order is made, it is transferred to the manufacturing site of Rhodanus AG, located in the Swiss province of Valais. The sixty employees of this family owned watch-maker have been assembling prestigious Swiss brands for over thirty years. A made-to-order watch will be mailed to the customer within ten working days. Despite the already launched web site, the owners plan to offer their products also in affiliate stores and for corporate customers.

The web site has just launched, and it's too early to evaluate if Factory 121 will become the DELL of the Watch Industry. However, early user feedback is very promising ("Je suis impressionné en bien par la qualité de votre service client", says Marc Priolo, Head of DELL Customer Service Switzerland). I will follow this case closely and keep you informed what's happening at Factory 121. In the meantime, I am waiting for the real big innovation in this field: How could I customize my time and get that 25-hour-day?

    【转载自   世界经理人】

    令我感到一点意外的是，几位企业界的朋友在回答是否赞同“缺陷即商机”、“缺点即卖点”这样的提法时，无一例外地告诉我“赞同”。　

　　我原本是预料了会有少数反对的声音，因为在我们传统的思维里，“缺陷”是一种可怕的状态，是一种风险，它意味着一种产品或者是一家企业可能导致的信任危机和市场萎缩。比如，爱普生的“余墨事件”，曾使这个国际知名企业一度在中国市场上遭受了冷峻的信任考验和客户流失的危机。但是，不管是哲学赋予我们思考事物的两面性，还是市场学和经济学的大量事例，在某种意义上，我们可以肯定地说：缺陷即商机！
　　
　　这个说法一旦被提出来，“缺陷”就变成了一个美妙的词语，它的背后可能隐藏了消费者的期盼、得不到满足的市场需求和产品的市场占有率攀升等让人心动的商机。　　

　　正如上述对“缺陷”一词的多角度思考一样，要理解“缺陷即商机”这句话，同样需要我们打开思维。也就是说，我们不能仅仅把这个缺陷理解为产品质量缺陷，它还应该包含了产品外延功能缺陷、管理缺陷、产业结构缺陷等多方面的不足。我们需要拓展缺陷的含义，才能发现并把握更多的商机，在思维源头和市场实际操作的层面上获得更多、更重要的启示。　　

　　

    【转载自   世界经理人】

    令我感到一点意外的是，几位企业界的朋友在回答是否赞同“缺陷即商机”、“缺点即卖点”这样的提法时，无一例外地告诉我“赞同”。　

　　我原本是预料了会有少数反对的声音，因为在我们传统的思维里，“缺陷”是一种可怕的状态，是一种风险，它意味着一种产品或者是一家企业可能导致的信任危机和市场萎缩。比如，爱普生的“余墨事件”，曾使这个国际知名企业一度在中国市场上遭受了冷峻的信任考验和客户流失的危机。但是，不管是哲学赋予我们思考事物的两面性，还是市场学和经济学的大量事例，在某种意义上，我们可以肯定地说：缺陷即商机！
　　
　　这个说法一旦被提出来，“缺陷”就变成了一个美妙的词语，它的背后可能隐藏了消费者的期盼、得不到满足的市场需求和产品的市场占有率攀升等让人心动的商机。　　

　　正如上述对“缺陷”一词的多角度思考一样，要理解“缺陷即商机”这句话，同样需要我们打开思维。也就是说，我们不能仅仅把这个缺陷理解为产品质量缺陷，它还应该包含了产品外延功能缺陷、管理缺陷、产业结构缺陷等多方面的不足。我们需要拓展缺陷的含义，才能发现并把握更多的商机，在思维源头和市场实际操作的层面上获得更多、更重要的启示。　　

　　缺陷即商机
　　
　　一、缺陷种种，利润种种　　

　　对缺陷的发现能力是决定最终能否把握住商机，赢得市场的前提条件。换句话说，你如果连缺陷在哪里，是什么都不知道，商机也就无从谈起了。　　

　　在本文中，我们把缺陷粗略地分为：产品质量、产品外延功能、管理、产业结构、销售模式、人身和服务需求等7个方面，并分别以填补缺陷后可获得重大利益的真实案例对其加以诠释。这种分类不全面，也不一定准确，关键是它能够达到拓展思维和有意启发的目的。　　

　　1.一颗螺丝的作用：产品质量缺陷　　

　　奥普是什么？绝大多数人会回答是“浴霸”，而事实上，它是一个企业名称。之所以会出现这种情况是因为奥普的浴霸在品牌认知度上以64.6%遥遥领先于其他对手。在奥普流行一句话：可以被仿冒，不可以被超越。这种自我的良好感觉来源与它的核心竞争力：强大的技术优势。传统的浴霸灯罩与灯头间的连接主要靠胶泥粘住，时间一长就容易脱落乃至爆炸，质量堪忧。奥普却将灯罩与灯头的连接处换成螺丝。如此一个小小的改动给它的产品带来的是10年来没有一次脱落或爆炸事件发生。　　

　　无独有偶。南山奶粉针对市场上销售的奶粉必须用沸水冲才能溶化，且喝了容易上火的缺陷，进行技术攻关，生产出了可以溶于凉水，喝了不上火的奶粉，市场份额迅速上升。　　

　　质量是产品的生命，也是许多消费者购买行为中的第一考虑要素。以上两则案例告诉我们，竞争对手的缺陷就是自己的商机。盯住别人的缺陷，并生产出弥补缺陷、填补市场空白的新产品，那么，赢得更多市场的机会也就来了。
　　
　　 2.马桶革命的启示：产品外延功能缺陷　　

　　你想过没有，马桶并非放在卫生间的硬邦邦的坐便器，它也可以表达时尚，也可以有个性、有内涵、有品位，它可以是深海美景、无厘头和搞笑漫画、恐怖的怪兽……
　　
　　马桶要革命，其中潜在的商机并非人人都能嗅到。
　　
　　李小丰在深圳，她做了两年的室内设计后发现，每个人都在努力装修自己的房间，却没有人注意卫生间里不起眼的马桶。她从中找到了商机。2001年，她第一次买了1000只马桶，对其精心装饰，彩绘、拼贴、雕刻等艺术手段都用上了。之后，她请了3名设计师专门装饰马桶，请了一批业务员进新建楼盘和别墅区推销艺术马桶，迅速赢利。赢利之后，李小丰想的是把“马桶原来也可以是这样的”开成连锁店。
　　
　　把马桶艺术化，是对产品外延功能的补充和完善，也是对传统生活理念的挑战。这一类商机比较隐蔽，通常需要一点“为什么一定要那样？”的反叛心理。想在市场上引领潮流，你就必须先人一步，走在前头。
　　

　　财富是自己创造的，多留点心，保不齐就踩上了致富的门槛。
　　
　　 3.从企业到现代化企业：管理缺陷　　

　　向管理要效益是一句让人耳朵长茧的口号，但是无可否认，一个管理好的企业确实可以比管理差的企业创造更大的利益。记者曾有幸在几个月前与首都高校博士团一行同赴福建东南地区，对当地的民营经济进行调研。闽东南地区特有的地缘和人文环境使当地的民营企业多以家族成员为管理主体。这种管理模式在企业发展初期对节约成本、统一决策等起到了很大的作用。但是在市场经济条件下，家族式管理已经成了有一定规模的闽东南民营企业的发展瓶颈，这其中管理者的素质、利益分配等问题最为突出。
　　
　　高校博士团团长、北京拓维经济发展研究院的院长王毅指出，现在中国的一些民营企业都在发展到一定阶段和规模之后遇到了“槛”，企业利润上不去了，企业规模上不去了，徘徊摇摆，只能干着急，却不知道问题出在哪里。这道“槛”最主要的问题就是由企业如何向现代化企业发展，它已经不仅仅是一个家族式管理的问题，而是许多民营企业的通病。
　　
　　事实上，管理者非常重要的职责就是每个管理者都应该像一个商人。所不同的是他出售的不是商品，而是一种理念和办法。他得使出浑身解数去兜售自己的理念和办法，而这些理念和办法应该是符合现代企业发展要求的。他必须让自己的员工乐于“购买”他所兜售的产品。　　

　　现代化的企业管理需要引入企业计量制度，需要提高决策者的素质，需要提高核心竞争力，需要完善企业的各种机制并强化执行力等等，可以说现代化的管理已经成为一个企业在未来竞争中站住脚跟的重要因素。向管理要效益虽然很土，但是还得继续这么说，只是，这种管理应该更现代化，更符合现代企业的发展需求。
　　
　　4.上海“楼宇经济”：产业结构缺陷　　

　　北京ＣＢＤ的定位是建设国际商务办公区，但在这个区域的开发中，这种结构性缺陷使北京ＣＢＤ的开发方向产生了偏离。按北京ＣＢＤ的总体规划，各类物业开发建设的比例是：写字楼占５０％、公寓占２５％、酒店娱乐及其他物业占２５％。实际开发后，北京ＣＢＤ地区却在短期内就涌现出了一股“集中建房热”的高潮，导致北京ＣＢＤ地区的住宅供应量急剧超过了规划量。而区内的写字楼建设却很冷清。　　

　　由于短期高开发利润的吸引，以及国内房地产企业实力有限的现状，使国内房地产企业不得不放弃写字楼建设而选择住宅。这种缺陷所带来的局限，在大型项目操作和长期稳定的回报上，充分地显现出来。　　

　　与这种缺陷相反的例证是上海，出现一栋楼一年纳税一个亿的“楼宇经济”现象，充分显示了完善结构性缺陷所蕴涵的商机：在上海地处南京西路的嘉里中心，２００１年的房租税、营业税、公司所得税再加上个人调节税等，一栋楼一年的税收就达１个亿，人们惊呼其为“嘉里现象”。别看这幢商务楼不搞商业活动，但它的入住率却带来了长期稳定的收入，商机无限。
　　
　　经营方向的单一，会减弱了企业抗行业周期风险的能力。保持合理的市场开发结构，对企业增强实力和扩张发展尤为重要。
　　
　　5. IT产品销售超市化：销售模式缺陷　　

　　近日，“鸿利多”IT超市北京店亮相京城。随着IT产品全面进入普通大众的生活，并成为日常生活的必需品，其销售方式也将由专业市场销售转向大众化的销售模式。
　　
　　从目前的情况看，虽然传统电脑城依然占据着IT产品销售的主流位置。但是，传统电脑卖场的固有缺陷正影响着其进一步向前发展，产品鱼目混珠、价格不一、服务没有保障等种种问题正受到越来越多的消费者的抱怨。记者曾对福州“大利嘉”电脑城的顾客进行随机调查，结果显示， “电脑城产品区域划分不明确，走进去没有方向感。”，“没有一个第三方的质量检测机构，质量没有保障。”，“特烦讨价还价，我在电脑城里大部分的时间都用在货比三家上了。”等成为消费者抱怨最多的几个问题，这些都暴露了传统电脑城经营销售模式中存在的隐忧。与传统电脑城相比，IT超市完善的售后服务、人性化的购物环境以及“一站式购物”的特点正吸引了越来越多消费者的关注。
　　
　　从超市的出现和连锁机构的出现，销售模式一直都在发生着变化，以适应市场和消费者的需求。而上述事例给我们的启迪是：对市场发展趋势要有一定的预见力和判断力，才能赢得商机，才能抓住市场先机。
　　
　　6.美容业发展的意义：人身缺陷　　

　　这个说法其实很好理解，仅从美容业近年来在中国大地上到处生根发芽就可见一斑。
　　
　　爱美之心，人皆有之，抓住这种消费心态，适时地推出相应的服务，也就抓住了商机。有人嫌自己的鼻子太塌，才有了隆鼻手术的应运而生；有人对自己的“飞机场”不满，才有了隆胸术广告的铺天盖地……
　　
　　可以简单地说，人，也就是消费主题的生理缺陷给了许多商家赚钱的机会。但是每一个市场在开发与饱和阶段的赢利与收益是肯定不一样的，只有及时发现人身缺陷与市场需求的人，才能掘得第一桶金。　　

　　这在非典时期同样可以看的一清二楚。由于人体在非典病毒前的软弱性，更多的人出于安全的考虑，选择了网络办公。于是，在那个时期，我们看到了电子商务的迅猛发展，看到了软件业的发展，看到了网络办公相关产品的大行其道。这无非是在告诉我们，在商业社会里，人身的软弱性也同样是商机。这样的说法似乎有些趁火打劫的味道，但是就商机的角度而言，这种说法并没有任何罪过。对商人来说，放过商机就是“犯罪”。
　　
　　7.“减肥”裤袜的市场垄断：需求缺陷　　

　　美国雪菲德裤袜公司在市调中发现，40%的妇女在为自己肥大的臀部而困扰乃至自卑，还发现这些女性都不穿裤袜，认为裤袜对遮掩大臀部无济于事。该公司经过激烈的讨论之后，决定研究生产一种叫“大妈妈”的新型裤袜，这种产品可以使大臀妇女一扫臃肿肥胖的形象。结果，产品投放市场不到一个月就收到了7000多封赞誉信，销量大增，很快奠定了公司在市场的垄断地位。
　　
　　有需求而没有产品，这个市场空白一旦被发现并填补，其所获利润是不言而喻的。远华案保时捷跑车的买主宋祖德曾创造了低成本三个多月赚300万元的奇迹。当时，广州白云区太和镇还属于远郊，当地政府一直为吸引人才和开发房产而努力。宋祖德看准了政府的求才苦心和外地人想入广州户口的念头，向太和镇利导提出了“符合太和镇需求的人才买太和的房，入广州户口”的设想，得到了同意。“三万九，买广州房，入广州户口”，他把不多的积蓄全都扔到了报纸广告上。结果是，虽然要支付130元的看房带路费，要求看房的人依然络绎不绝，宋祖德曾经一天就赚了3万多元。
　　
　　二、把握商机，避开财运中的危险

　　财运能帮你，也能伤害你，正所谓“水能载舟，亦能覆舟”。发现缺陷以后，如何把握就成了人们最关心的问题。实际上，要说好这个话题是很难的一件事情，所以在本文中，只能通过概念化的对把握商机的论述，并以非典时期的通信业对商机把握的实际情况作为蓝本，具体解释这些论述。
　　
　　企业成功的经营背后一定有一位或者几位眼光独到的决策者，他们能够并且善于在“乱花渐欲迷人眼”的市场上发现、把握赚钱的机会。

　　这种把握首先要注意的是满足需要我们手中的商品或服务。只有符合他人的需求才有可能获得利润。近年来塑料袋因为满足了人们的生活便利需求而发展为大产业。但是它的大量使用所带来的环境污染压力，又使“绿色便袋”大行其道。
　　
　　其次是不能过度乐观地估计形势，进行过度扩张。在新产品的投放或新计划的实施前需要对市场需求量进行客观、冷静的分析和调查，以免使财运变成霉运。
　　
　　三是要通达计谋。习惯性的思维往往使我们丧失市场良机。在市场尚未完全明朗化之前，需要胆量和魄力。试想一下，如果当年比尔·盖茨没有使IBM公司偶然地选择他赖以起家的MSDOS作为新研制出的个人计算机软件操作系统，他可能仍然只是一个格子间里微不足道的程序员。
　　
　　四是根据自己的资金和人员配备制定相应的市场推广营销谋略。集中资金和人员对潜在客户群开展针对性强的广告投放或市场推广。这个部分需要提供一套成型的解决方案，以满足不同消费者在不同场合的的不同需求。
　　
　　下面就以非典时期的通信业对商机把握的实际情况作为蓝本，具体解释这些论述。
　　
　　众所周知，在非典时期，商机并非一家独有，而是同等地放在几乎所有的电信运营商面前。“非接触经济”在短期内快速繁荣，必然会加剧同质竞争。谁也不会在这个非常的机遇期慢慢消化这块蛋糕。商机从某种程度上说，是对通信企业综合实力的一次检阅。那么，一些在其中胜出的通信企业是怎么样把握这一不同寻常的商机呢？
　　
　　首先，他们在非常时期打破常规思维，优化发展策略。后期的调查发现，非典给地方经济带来的发展机遇主要有：国家政策调整的机遇、市场结构调整的机遇、疫后大发展的机遇等。把握好宏观形势的基本面，是通信企业把握商机的第一要素。非典时期，各级政府部门已经深深体会到推行电子政务，有效地组织和共享信息的好处。电子政务也有助于政府部门决策的科学化和行为规范化、高效率化。另外，商业、企业、社区、家庭的信息化成了当务之急，非典使人们认识到，信息化在提高人们生活质量的同时，还给予人们生命财产以极大的保障。因此，一些电信行业的相关企业开始加大细分市场的力度，根据市场需求，重新调整营销策略，优化投资项目，丰富个性服务。
　　
　　其次，扬长避短，趋利避害，打造品牌。非典时期，也是通信企业打造品牌、增强企业凝聚力和创新力的良机。通信部门建立了快速反应机制，积极排查缺漏，确保了公用电信网内、网间通信畅通。同时，他们以保障中央和地方各级党政部门对防治工作的统一领导和指挥在电信网中的高效传递为第一使命和树立良好社会公众形象的大好机会，及时形成品牌效应。
　　
　　建立新的目标市场，以积极、和谐、开放、创新的心态参与竞争与合作，是通信企业把握商机的第三要素。对于近期中小企业形成的上网热，通信企业应着眼于长远目标，通过义务培训与服务营销相结合的方式，进一步激发中小企业用户网上贸易的积极性，从中逐步发掘出潜在的大客户。网上教育、语音信箱等电信业务，由于受非典疫情的影响，在众多学校应用火爆。对此，通信企业开始加大对学校和师生群体的营销攻势，抢占这一具有“后发优势”的市场。同时，我们还要注意到，虽然非典时期许多地方的网吧暂停营业，但当非典疫情得到有效遏止后，人们对网吧的消费信心就被重新唤起。通信企业准确预测并打出了服务的“提前量”，主动掌握对网吧的未来控制权。
　　
　　此外，当社会经济秩序回到正常轨道并保持良性的增长态势时，在非典疫情突发期压抑的消费能量会逐步释放，新业务、新技术将引起人们的普遍兴趣，因此对海关报关、网上银行、网上证券、电子商务、网上教育、物流信息平台、电话交互会议等新型的网络应用的推广力度也在当时不断被通信企业加大。
　　
　　他山之石，可以攻玉。上述的例子与简单的论证无非是提供了一种思维上的启发，市场瞬息万变，要真正在缺陷中淘到属于你的商机，还要时时刻刻对市场需求进行判断和预见，这就需要决策者不断提高个人素质，企业不断提升开发市场能力和抗风险能力了。
　　
　　借用一部科技电影里的一句话：如果你建造了它，它就是未来。

Henry Ford's first great contribution to America was the Model T, which rolled off the assembly lines at his Highland Park, Michigan, plant at the rate of one every 24 seconds. At the time, it was an amazing display of industrial efficiency. By streamlining automation in his factories, Ford advanced an era of mass production that built his fortune and brought the automobile within reach of an emerging middle class. But while the miracle of mass production delivered the goods, it didn't adapt easily, so all Model T's looked alike. Ford's approach can be summed up in what he said about the car's exterior: "The consumer can have any color he wants so long as it's black."

Ford's take-it-or-leave-it attitude wouldn't cut it in today's economy. Americans are blessed—some might say overwhelmed—by an ever-expanding variety of goods and services. (See Exhibits 1 and 2.) Just since the early 1970s, there's been an explosion of choice in the marketplace—the assortment of new vehicle models has risen from 140 to 260, soft drinks from 20 to more than 87, TV channels from 5 to 185, over-the-counter pain relievers from 17 to 141. The U.S. market offers 7,563 prescription drugs, 3,000 beers, 1,174 amusement parks, 340 kinds of breakfast cereal, 50 brands of bottled water. Whole milk sits on the supermarket shelf beside skim milk, half-percent, 1 percent, 2 percent, lactose-reduced, hormone-free, chocolate, buttermilk and milk with a shelf life of six months. Today's consumers have access to more book titles, more movies and more magazines. Ford's company still makes black cars for buyers who want them, but it also offers a palette of 46 other colors—toreador red, jalapeño green, Atlantic blue, mocha frost, autumn orange, teal and more.

This proliferation of products, models and styles isn't capitalism run amok. Variety shouldn't be dismissed as a trivial extravagance. It's a wealthy, sophisticated society's way of improving the lot of consumers. The more choices, the better. A wide selection of goods and services increases the chance each of us will find, somewhere among all the shelves and showrooms, products that meet our requirements. (See Exhibits 3, 4 and 5.)

Over time, the American economy has been giving us more of what we want. Just look at what's happened in automobile design since Ford made his declaration about the color of cars. Until 1914, Model T's were available in red, blue, green, gray and black. The move to all black was a concession to mass production that made the car a commodity of sorts, but standardization wasn't a winning strategy in the long run. By 1927, competition forced Ford to rethink variety. The Model A came in several body styles and an array of colors. With each decade, Ford gave consumers more choices, so that by 1955 the company offered five model series: mainline, customline, Fairlane, station wagon and the two-passenger Thunderbird convertible. Buyers could select upholstery and optional equipment.

The possibilities for doing a better job of meeting consumers' wants still weren't exhausted. Ford and other automakers started designing products for market niches. In 1964, Ford introduced the Mustang, an inexpensive, sporty vehicle for young drivers. The 1980s brought the Taurus and Sable, cars for middle- and upper-middle-income families. As Ford prepares for the next millennium, it's introducing custom ordering, which allows buyers to specify what they want. Ford's Internet site offers six models of the Explorer—each with choices for power train, exterior, interior, audio, wheels, tires and other options. All told, there are more than 2.5 million possible combinations for the vehicle.

The trend toward customization isn't confined to the automobile industry. From clothing to computers, businesses are working to become more consumer friendly. They do it to gain new sales and stay competitive. They do it because pleasing the customer isn't just about producing more stuff. It's about producing the right stuff.

Just what is the right stuff? It's more of what we do want and less of what we don't want. The economy provides more of what we do want by customizing products to our particular tastes. It eliminates what we don't want through preventive products. Vaccines, childproof caps, safety gear on cars and antipollution devices are valuable for the misfortunes they avert. Preventive goods and services are often taken for granted—until they're needed. They raise living standards by replacing treatment with immunity, repair with safer design, helping protect consumers from some of life's tragedies.

The rich have always enjoyed the luxury of custom-made products. Now, though, personalized goods and services are increasingly within the budgets of middle-class consumers. Computers, the Internet, DNA research and other technologies are forging a whole new paradigm that makes possible the delivery of custom-designed products to the masses—at ever lower prices. The descriptive phrase for the phenomenon is mass customization. "Once you know exactly what you want, you'll be able to get it just that way," says Bill Gates, founder of software giant Microsoft. "Computers will enable goods that today are mass produced to be both mass produced and custom-made for particular customers."

The economy's progression to customization isn't a fad. It arises from the free market's relentless drive to bring what we buy closer to what we want. What we buy yields a lot more utility when it exactly matches our needs, and Americans are reaping enormous benefits as new tools help business cater to markets of one. We're getting more for less, helping keep inflation in check.

There's just one glitch in this otherwise serendipitous story: traditional measures of the economy may not reflect how much our living standards are improving. Conceived in an era of mass production, the nation's GDP and productivity statistics may ably count more stuff, but they give little credit for right stuff. Mass customization and prevention—just like variety—deliver their gains in important but subtle ways, so gross domestic product and productivity statistics fail to capture the extent of our progress.

For the Future, the Best of the Past
Just as mass production was the hallmark of yesterday's Industrial Age, mass customization promises to dominate the modern stage of America's economic evolution—the Information Age. New eras, of course, don't arrive overnight. They emerge slowly and incrementally as they overlap with the old, taking years and even decades to transform the economy. Even so, we're already seeing noteworthy moves to mass customization.

Computers. Dell Computer of Round Rock, Texas, has proven that complex manufactured products can be made to order. Using the telephone or the Internet, customers describe the computer they want, the shape of the cabinet and size of the monitor screen, the speed of the microprocessor, the capacity of the hard drive. Other choices involve keyboards, mouses, video cards, modems, speakers, data-storage systems and software. The number of possible combinations is staggering—almost 16 million for desktop models alone. Dell begins assembling a computer only after it receives an order and then ships the finished product directly to the customer's home or business within a few days. Gateway 2000, Micron Technology and Compaq Computer also make computers to customers' exact specifications.

Clothing. Off-the-rack apparel has always come in many sizes, styles and colors, but mass customization promises a perfect match for each buyer's fit and taste. Connecticut's InterActive Custom Clothes sells jeans over the Internet, allowing customers to specify hip size, leg and seat room, fabric, color, thread accents, leg silhouette, fly design, pocket style, buttons, rivets and even label. The pants are produced to exact specifications at a New York factory. Digitoe, a Washington company, uses a scanner to measure every millimeter of customers' feet for custom-made shoes. Using his computerized mobile fitting unit, Alan Zerobnick digitizes each foot's dimensions—no matter the size or shape—and builds a three-dimensional shoe last around which any style can be molded for a perfect fit. Orders are shipped in three to four weeks. Reorders require only a phone call.

Entertainment and information. Music buffs who wanted to hear their favorite songs once had to buy dozens of compact discs. Now, CDuctive, a New York company, maintains an Internet site with sound bites from about 10,000 titles. Customers select a dozen cuts to be burned onto a CD and shipped to their door.

In the age of mass media, the goal was to create newspapers and television stations that reached a broad audience. The Internet changes all that. NewsEdge Corp. gathers a profile of each customer's interests, then scans almost 700 news sources to deliver regular reports on current events, sports, weather and finance, all geared to the individual reader. Broadcast.com, a 5-year-old Dallas company, operates a web site that transforms computers into the most powerful radio receivers ever, allowing listeners to pick up stations from Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, Sweden or anywhere else in the world.

Health care. Advances in biotechnology—most important, the ongoing process of cracking the DNA code—now allow doctors to individualize drugs and other treatments. Affymetrix, a Santa Clara, California, company, has produced the first biochip, a dense grid of molecular tweezers that extracts individuals' DNA. The biochip can analyze thousands of genes at once—in effect, speed-reading the cells' DNA codes. Although the Human Genome Project has been mapping genes since 1990, biochips make the process personal. They give doctors information on each patient's medical condition.

Philadelphia's Acumin sells capsules customized with specific vitamins and dosages for each customer, cutting the number of pills some people swallow in a day. Advances in cloning technology are allowing doctors to take a skin sample and reproduce a patient's own collagen cells. Injections of the cells can smooth wrinkles and scars without risk of allergic reaction.

In one industry after another, companies are customizing for the mass market. They're doing it because new technologies make it practical and competition makes it imperative. Futurist Alvin Toffler, who predicted the coming of mass customization in the 1970s, recently issued a stern warning to producers who aren't yet on board: "I'd say if you have a company and you're not moving toward automation on demand, you'll have a competitor one day soon who will put you out of business."

Whether companies are seeking to expand sales or just stay in business, mass customization enables producers to snare buyers by offering extra value. It's no surprise that consumer satisfaction lies at the core of this phenomenon; what consumers want always shapes market economies. Econ 101 professors have taught this straightforward notion since Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations in 1776. Markets serve as complex information machines that collect and communicate buyers' needs, tastes, desires and whims. Producers that do the best job of catering to consumers gain market share and make greater profits. Burger King got it right in its advertising slogan: Have it your way!

Companies prosper by delivering what customers want. This conventional view of consumer sovereignty is correct—as far as it goes. What's missing is a description of how meeting buyers' needs and wants evolves over time. (See Exhibit 6.) Americans have always preferred customized products, but they couldn't always afford them. Now, companies are finding ways to deliver exactly what we want at prices competitive with those of mass production.

Until the Industrial Revolution, producers catered to consumers one at a time. Sophisticated machine tools hadn't been invented, so every product had to be handmade. A tailor, for example, would measure each customer and ask about style, fabric and fit, then stitch a suit or dress to the exact pattern. When shoes, furniture and all other goods were made to order, customers could always buy just what they wanted—if they could afford it. The drawback of production by artisans was high cost. The typical American was lucky to possess one suit of clothes and one pair of shoes.

Industrialization changed that. Machines began to make our clothes, shoes, furniture, kitchen utensils and an array of new products, sweeping America into an era of mass production. Producer and consumer rarely came into contact. Goods were made in factories, shipped over great distances and sold in department stores. Mass production dictated large runs of identical products. Consumers sacrificed the luxury of personal attention for affordability. Taking what came off the shelf, though it might not be a perfect fit, was the best choice because it was cheap. The Industrial Age brought lower prices. Just as important, each worker produced more, justifying a bigger paycheck. Today, just about all U.S. households possess cars, television sets, telephones and plenty of other everyday conveniences—all made possible by mass production.

What's increasingly shaping today's economy isn't the raw power of machines but the subtle power of knowledge. Information Age technology—primarily the computer—has erased yesterday's edict that customization must carry a high price. Mass customization offers consumers the best of both worlds. It embodies the good qualities from the era of hand production—custom design and individualized service. And it retains the most significant gain from the era of mass production—low cost.

Mass production was about producing more stuff. Mass customization is about producing the right stuff.

Customization for the mass market isn't just economists' jargon for variety. The difference lies in which side of the market calls the shots. Variety represents producers' best guess about what consumers will buy. Companies tweak their designs, hoping what they offer is close enough. Even when companies rely on market research, they're still aiming at broad groups of consumers. Variety has delivered great benefits in recent decades, but it is mass production's response to the fact that everybody's tastes differ. (See Exhibit 7.) Even at its best, variety is an imperfect substitute for true customization, which eliminates the need for guesswork. Companies that customize don't make anything until they know precisely what the customer wants.

One size fits all? Not anymore. What served as a good slogan for mass production doesn't cut it in today's world.

Technology's Role: Driving Down Costs
Why have Americans had to wait until the tail end of the 20th century for mass customization? The simplest answer: until now, the country didn't have the know-how to customize at low cost. Today's technology, though, makes it possible.

If there's a signature tool of mass customization, it's the microprocessor. This tiny device is indispensable to many of today's "smart" tools—most notably, powerful computers that process, store and send information. The Internet moves vast amounts of information at the click of a button—not just words and numbers but pictures and sound as well. Search engines—software that brings order to the Internet's chaos—are key to customizing because they find and organize information based on users' profiles and inquiries. Lasers are used in bar-code scanners, measurement devices and fiber-optic cables that can transmit whole libraries in seconds. Artificial intelligence programs simplify the design of new products. Computer-controlled manufacturing makes it faster and cheaper to modify designs and assemble one-of-a-kind items. Breakthroughs in biotechnology are unlocking the secrets of individual cells. The leap from analog to digital greatly expands the capacity of all kinds of communications technologies to process and deliver that most precious of commodities—information.

The tools of the Information Age are indeed powerful. These technologies spawn mass customization by revolutionizing the calculus of production costs. Nearly all business expenses fall into two broad categories—fixed and marginal. Fixed costs include conceiving, designing and organizing the operation, setting up plants, installing equipment, bringing in utilities, hiring workers and slogging through the usual morass of red tape. These costs are incurred before the first sale is made. Marginal costs, on the other hand, aren't incurred until an enterprise is up and running. They cover expenses for producing additional units of output, including wages, raw materials, electricity, marketing and distribution.

The interplay of fixed and marginal costs explains both mass production and mass customization. In the Industrial Age, electric motors, engines, winches, conveyor belts, machine tools and other advances reshaped the economy. They were the high technology of the times. These innovations allowed companies to turn out identical products cheaply. The order of the day was standardization—from nuts and bolts to accounting procedures and time zones. The world of mass production usually involved high fixed costs and low marginal costs. Producers made money by cranking out as many units as possible, driving down the average production cost by spreading the huge fixed cost over more and more units. That's precisely what Henry Ford and his successors did. Customers paid lower prices for automobiles, appliances, clothing and household goods, but companies could only bring a limited number of standardized models to the marketplace. With high fixed costs and low marginal costs, it's cheap to make the same product for everybody but expensive to produce a different product for each customer.

Industrial Age technology replaced muscle power with machine power, which ran the assembly lines. Information Age technology complements machine power with brain power, enabling us to recognize each consumer's preferences and deliver what they want at a reasonable price. (See Exhibit 8.) Once again, the key is costs. Mass customization becomes optimal when both fixed and marginal costs—particularly fixed—are low. If producers can change designs quickly and inexpensively, they'll win customers by targeting individual tastes and preferences. Average costs decline even without long production runs, permitting low prices along with the bonus of getting exactly what we want.

Mass production was the by-product of Industrial Age tools. Mass customization is the dividend of Information Age tools.

Modern technologies slash fixed costs in three areas: information, production and distribution. By making it easy to supply information, the Internet gives consumers a cheap and easy way to find out what goods and services are on the market. Companies can display immense amounts of product information on their web pages and take orders from anywhere in the world. More important, the Internet frees producers from the expensive proposition of paying firms to gather information on what buyers want. (See Exhibits 9 and 10.) They now find out electronically, at negligible cost. Both InterActive Custom Clothes, the jeans maker, and CDuctive, the producer of custom compact discs, compile consumers' preferences through the Internet. Amazon.com, the Internet bookseller, keeps track of readers' purchases, allowing the online vendor to recommend specific books to individual customers.

By making it cheaper to personalize during production, Information Age tools remove the last barriers to providing goods and services for individual customers. It's smart automation that allows CDuctive to personalize compact discs at the click of a button. Once an order arrives, computers retrieve the selections from a hard drive and burn them directly onto blank discs. InterActive Custom Clothes uses computerized fabric cutters that are quick, precise and inexpensive. Even assembly lines are no longer limited to endless iterations of the same product. Computer-aided designs are replacing costly prototypes. (See Exhibit 11.) Computer-guided machinery allows production to shift from one style to another with a few lines of computer code. At Motorola's pager factory in Boynton Beach, Florida, the specifications for each order arrive in a direct transmission from sales representatives' laptop computers. Within minutes, these specs are translated into bar-code instructions for the assembly process. In theory, the factory could produce 29 million different pagers on the same line, one right after another, without the time and expense of retooling.

Improvements in distribution, made possible by such technologies as lasers and computers, reduce the fixed costs of getting products to consumers. Bar-code scanners allow Federal Express and other overnight shippers to improve speed and accuracy while reducing outlays for a global system to pick up, sort, track and deliver packages. As the Internet spreads into more homes and businesses, it makes the delivery of information products relatively inexpensive. What does it cost NewsEdge Corp. to personalize news reports? Next to nothing. Fidelity Investments and other brokerages offer web sites that allow investors to track their portfolios in real time. DirecTV, capitalizing on the increased capacity of satellite television systems, incurs no added expense by offering the entire National Football League schedule every Sunday, so sports fans can choose which games they want to watch.

Michael Dell started his $16 billion computer business in a University of Texas dorm room in 1983 on the basis of low fixed cost. Dell's masterstroke: build to order and do it quickly. Customization would lose its value if customers had to wait months for their computers. The Internet allows Dell to find out what each customer wants, instantly and cheaply. Continuous-flow manufacturing cuts the cost of customizing: 35 cargo doors line both ends of Dell's new Round Rock manufacturing facility. On one side, suppliers deliver components throughout the day. On the other, workers load finished products onto trucks. Actual assembly takes five minutes. Even adding time for loading software and testing for quality, the whole process takes just four hours. By economizing on spare parts, product inventory, delivery and every other step of the process, the company provides a customized product at a competitive price. No wonder Michael Dell has been lauded as the Henry Ford of mass customization. (See Exhibit 12.)

Information Age technology thrusts our economy toward mass customization, but other factors also contribute. The globalization of commerce, for example, makes goods and services more widely available, especially as cutting-edge electronic media reduce the time and expense involved in gathering information. Access to products from around the world also makes us more sophisticated consumers, so that even in the home market we demand the nuances of Italian suits or German beer.

Just as mass customization couldn't take root in an isolated society, it couldn't emerge in a poor one. Low-income countries are still dominated by mass production. That's to be expected, because producing quantity is the quickest way out of poverty. Once a nation becomes wealthy, most families' basic needs are satisfied. As they move up the economic ladder, consumers typically move down a list of wants from food, clothing and shelter to luxuries. All of us desire the luxury of goods and services that embody our own tastes and preferences. It's money in the pocket, though, that makes it possible. We're becoming a society of mass customization because we can now afford it.

First we meet basic needs through mass production. Then we gratify individual wants through mass customization.

Right Stuff, Wrong Statistics
As mass customization becomes part of our everyday lives, most Americans will intuitively understand how it represents an improvement over mass production. Clothes will fit better. Entertainment will be more enjoyable. Doctors and hospitals will have individualized tools to make us healthier.

Yet it may be hard for many Americans to assess how much better off we are. The problem lies in how we measure our economic progress. We tend to rely on a handful of well-publicized statistics—most notably, gross domestic product, the Consumer Price Index and productivity figures. The benefits of mass customization, however, are hard to quantify, especially with the rudimentary economic yardsticks now available.

GDP is a statistic designed for mass production. It's a simple counting—the number of units made. It falls short in measuring intangible benefits. Economic research demonstrates that GDP often fails to capture consumers' gains from better quality and new products. Mass customization introduces a similar bias, one tied to the fact that we can measure production but not consumers' satisfaction. They aren't the same, even though many commentators casually link them. (See Exhibit 13.)

Nobody ever said quantity was the spice of life. GDP statistics tell the same tale whether a business executive owns 12 identical suits or if he possesses a dozen in an array of fabrics and styles. Is it really the same? No individual would think so; that's why our closets are filled with a variety of garments. Will 100 copies of The Catcher in the Rye offer as much reading pleasure as one copy of 100 different novels? GDP says so. Most consumers would say no. And just as variety has produced gains for America that have eluded the GDP and productivity statistics, mass customization will produce even more.

Preventive production proves just as slippery for GDP accounting. (See Exhibit 14.) If electronic sensors in roads and vehicles can prevent accidents, Americans will have undamaged cars. Without the technology, they might be involved in more collisions, spending money on repairs. Either way, they have the same thing—a car without dents. The first costs less, so GDP accounting would suggest we're worse off, not better off. Similarly, scientists are developing vaccines that will eliminate tooth decay. We will benefit from improved dental health, but the holes not drilled in teeth are net losses to GDP. A stitch in time may indeed save nine, but it also generates one-ninth the GDP.

Inflation-adjusted GDP puts economic growth at an annual average of 2.7 percent over the past two decades. GDP may be entirely accurate as a tally of how much our farms, factories and offices produce, but it's increasingly inadequate as a measure of how well the economy provides what we want—the satisfaction produced. As we grow wealthier, Americans are taking more of our progress in ways that aren't readily quantified. We're refining what we produce—making the right stuff, not just stuff.

If GDP can't detect the benefits of mass customization, it will also miss the mark on productivity, a number that derives straight from the GDP calculations. Some economists are disappointed in America's productivity performance over the past quarter century, a time of rapid spread of new technologies—most notably the computer. They see measured productivity slowing to 1 percent a year and worry that Information Age advances aren't delivering the same economic punch as Industrial Age inventions. It just isn't so. Our statistics don't recognize how the economy is making us better off by producing for us individually rather than en masse. (See Exhibit 15.)

Our statistics are a rearview mirror, looking back at the past. We need to focus on the economy that's emerging rather than the one that has been. Tomorrow's progress can't be judged with yesterday's gauges. What's needed are analytical tools that can capture the benefits of mass customization and preventive products.

After all, output and productivity aren't the goals of the economy. Consumer satisfaction is.
Mass customization is already making consumers better off by providing just what we want. And the best is yet to come. What's likely to arrive in coming years will be truly astounding. InterActive Custom Clothes produces jeans to order, but even more elaborate systems are reaching the prototype stage. A customer starts with a stroll through a body scanner, which uses lasers to take 50 measurements from head to toe, then saves the data on a wallet-sized smart card handy for shopping. When ready to buy a new suit, shirt or dress, the customer mixes and matches from among hundreds of fashion accents. At the touch of a button, the order will go to a factory, where computerized cutting and sewing machines will turn out clothing with the buyer's own label sewn inside.

In the field of medicine, Affymetrix already makes devices to decode individuals' DNA. The ability to quickly gather heretofore unknown information about patients is giving birth to a new discipline called pharmacogenomics. Using this distinct genetic portrait, pharmaceutical companies expect to offer drugs tailored to individuals' age, symptoms, condition and hereditary makeup. Personalized drugs will not only ensure correct dosage, they'll also curtail side effects.

Mass customization promises more marvels like these. Interactive television will give families the power, now held by network program directors, to determine the nightly lineup. Automakers are starting to design systems that will build cars to order. Textbooks, scents, electronic gadgets and just about everything else will someday bear our personal stamp.

We might not see faster growth rates or surges in productivity, but mass customization will pay off for America. Resources are wasted guessing what customers want. When more products are customized, we won't squander money on clothing that sits in the closet because it doesn't fit or compact discs with only one or two songs we really like. And goods won't languish on dealers' shelves. Achieving a higher standard of living with fewer demands on natural and labor resources will help ease price pressures and continue this decade's good news on inflation.

Two centuries of American economic progress have brought us a standard of living that's the envy of the world. We wouldn't have it so good without the immense variety provided as companies move from standardization to custom-made. Our economy offers a veritable feast for consumers. Mass customization will make it even better. An economy that's delivering more of what we want and less of what we don't is doing its job in raising living standards. As we enter the 21st century, the United States is moving into a new economic era, one where consumers will be better off than ever before—because we'll live in a world of our own design.

—W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm

(To view the Appendix, please see the PDF).

(To view the Exhibits, please see the PDF).

Acknowledgments "The Right Stuff: America's Move to Mass Customization" was written by W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm. The essay is based on research conducted by Cox, senior vice president and chief economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Meredith Walker provided important research assistance throughout the course of the project. Thanks also go to Maria Coello, Gallin Fortunov, Charlene Howell, Sergei Polevikov and Stephen Stout. Selected References Barry, James P., Henry Ford and Mass Production (New York: Franklin Watts, 1973). Burness, Tad, Cars of the Early Twenties (Philadelphia: Chilton Book Co., 1968). Cox, W. Michael, and Roy J. Ruffin, "What Should Economists Measure? The Implications of Mass Production vs. Mass Customization," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper no. 98-03 (July 1998). Dell, Michael, Direct from Dell (New York: HarperBusiness, 1999). Ford Motor Co. [off-site] Gates, Bill, The Road Ahead (New York: Viking, 1995). Gilmore, James H., and B. Joseph Pine II, "The Four Faces of Customization," Harvard Business Review, January–February 1997, pp. 91–101. Gordon, Robert J., "Monetary Policy in the Age of Information Technology: Computers and the Solow Paradox," prepared for the conference "Monetary Policy in a World of Knowledge-Based Growth, Quality Change and Uncertain Measurement," Bank of Japan, June 18–19, 1998. Greenspan, Alan, "Is There a New Economy?" remarks at the Haas Annual Business Faculty Research Dialogue, University of California at Berkeley, Sept. 4, 1998. Greenspan, Alan, "Problems of Price Measurement," remarks at the Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt, Germany, Nov. 7, 1997. Krugman, Paul, "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade," Journal of Political Economy, December 1980, pp. 950–59. Lancaster, Kelvin J., Variety, Equity, and Efficiency (New York: Columbia University Press, 1979). Peppers and Rogers Group, Marketing 1 to 1 [off-site]. Pine, B. Joseph II, Mass Customization: The New Frontier in Business Competition (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1993). Schonfeld, Erick, "The Customized, Digitized, Have-It-Your Way Economy," Fortune, Sept. 28, 1998, pp. 114-21. Sears, Stephen W., The American Heritage History of the Automobile in America (New York: American Heritage Publishing, 1977). Solow, Robert M., "We'd Better Watch Out," New York Times, July 12, 1987, p. 36. Toffler, Alvin, The Third Wave (New York: Bantam Books, 1980). Toffler, Alvin, quoted in "Toffler: Change—or Else," Inc., May 1, 1998, p. 23. Exhibit Notes and Data Sources Page 4, More Choices Than Ever Data on product variety are scarce. The numbers in this table represent the authors' best estimates, using the sources listed below. Vehicle models: 1970, NADA Official Used Car Guide [off-site], January 1970; 1998, Ward's AutoInfoBank. Vehicle styles: 1970, NADA Official Used Car Guide [off-site], January 1970; 1998. SUV models: 1970, NADA Official Used Car Guide [off-site], January 1971; 1998, Ward's AutoInfoBank. SUV styles: 1970, NADA Official Used Car Guide [off-site], January 1971; 1998. Personal computer models: 1998, computers reviewed by CNET [off-site], as of Jan. 5, 1999. Software titles: 1998, number of files available in CNET's Shareware.com [off-site] software library, as of Jan. 4, 1999. Web sites: 1998, NetNames, as of Nov. 29, 1998. Movie releases, airports, magazine titles, new book titles, community colleges and amusement parks: see notes for Variety on the Rise. TV screen sizes: 1972, Popular Science, August 1972; 1998, number of screen sizes available at Best Buy. Houston TV channels: 1970, TV Guide, Southeast Texas Edition, Sept. 12-18, 1970; 1998, DirecTV. Radio broadcast stations: 1970 and 1998 (as of Nov. 30), Federal Communications Commission. McDonald's menu items: 1970 and 1998, McDonald's Corp. KFC menu items: 1970 and 1998, KFC. Frito-Lay chip varieties: 1970 and 1996, Frito-Lay Inc. Breakfast cereals: 1980 and mid-1990s, The Economics of New Goods (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1996). Pop-Tarts: 1970 and 1998, Kellogg Co. National soft drink brands: 1970, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle, Jan. 7, 1971; mid-1990s, Beverage World, April 1994; Beverage World, March 1995. Bottled water brands: 1970 and 1998, numerous industry web sites, including bottledwater.org [off-site] and bottledwaterweb.com [off-site] . Milk types: 1970 and 1998, numerous industry web sites, including whymilk.com [off-site] and milk.co [off-site] . Colgate toothpastes: 1970 and 1998, Colgate-Palmolive Co. Mouthwashes: 1970, numerous newspapers, including Wall Street Journal, Sept. 16, 1970; 1998, brands available at Dallas-area stores. Dental flosses: 1978, Mediamark Research Inc., product summary report; 1998, brands available at Dallas-area stores. Prescription drugs: 1978 and 1998, Physicians' Desk Reference (Montvale, N.J.: Medical Ecomomics Co., 1978 and 1998). Over-the-counter pain relievers: 1970 and 1998, numerous industry sources and Dallas-area stores. Levi's jean styles: spring 1972 and 1998, Levi Strauss & Co. Running shoe styles: 1970, numerous company and industry sources, including Runner's World, September 1970; 1998, Holabird Sports [off-site]. Women's hosiery styles: 1970 and 1998, National Association of Hosiery Manufacturers. Contact lens types: 1970 (note: soft lenses were introduced in 1971), Consumer Reports, May 1972; 1998 total reflects possible combinations of material, wear schedule, replacement schedule and correction modality, plus types of tinted lenses; numerous industry web sites consulted. Bicycle types: 1970 and 1998, Jay Townley & Associates, Lyndon Station, Wis. Page 5, Variety on the Rise: amusement parks, U.S. Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, various years; general and farm magazine titles, Magazine Publishers of America, from Audit Bureau of Circulations; new book titles, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, various years; airports, Federal Aviation Administration, Statistical Handbook of Aviation, various years; community colleges, National Center for Education Statistics; movies released, Motion Picture Association of America. Page 6, The More the Merrier: new product introductions of consumer packaged goods by number of new SKUs, Marketing Intelligence Service Ltd., New York. Page 7, Product Variety at U.S. Grocery Stores: average number of SKUs by type of store, Willard Bishop Consulting, Competitive Edge, May issues, 1990-98. Pages 8, 9, Food for Thought: average lunch prices reported by Dallas-area restaurants, phone survey, week of Jan. 17, 1999. Pages 10, 11, Providing What Consumers Want: Burness (1968). Page 12, Vehicle Models, 1980–97: Ward's AutoInfoBank, used by permission of Ward's Communications, Southfield, Mich. Page 15, Market Research in the United States: research spending in 1997 dollars, Marketing News, June 8, 1998. Page 21, An Ounce of Prevention: $107 billion in 1998 is the total of $37 billion in direct costs and $70 billion in indirect morbidity and mortality costs associated with cancer. American Cancer Society; National Cancer Institute; National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine; U.S. News and World Report, Nov. 23, 1998. Photo Credits Inside covers, Joe Scherschel/Life Magazine©Time Inc.; Page 4, Roderick F. Kasar, Euless, Texas (airplane); Contact Lenses Online, Inc. [off-site]; Pages 10, 11, 18, Courtesy of Ford Motor Company; Page 14, My Twinn Doll Company (1-800-469-8946); Andy Sperry (for Softplan); Page 16, Courtesy of shirtcreations.com [off-site] ; Page 17, Catherine Lash for Footmaxx; Page 19, Wyatt McSpadden. About the Dallas Fed The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks in the United States. Together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., these organizations form the Federal Reserve System and function as the nation's central bank. The System's basic purpose is to provide a flow of money and credit that will foster orderly economic growth and a stable dollar. In addition, Federal Reserve Banks supervise banks and bank holding companies and provide certain financial services to the banking industry, the federal government and the public. Since 1914, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has served the financial institutions in the Eleventh District. The Eleventh District encompasses 350,000 square miles and comprises the state of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. The three branch offices of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are in El Paso, Houston and San Antonio.

【转载自  http://www.365f.com  2004-2-3  《家具与室内装饰》 行淑敏　徐雪梅　陈健敏　】　

1.导言

　　大规模定制是近十几年来风靡国内外制造业的一种新的生产模式，它以低成本敏捷化的操作快速响应单个客户的需求，兼顾定制生产和大规模生产的优点。已有许多企业通过实施大规模定制获得了巨大的竞争优势，如生产牛仔裤的李维斯公司（Levi Strauss & Co.）、日本松下自行车公司、摩托罗拉、戴尔公司（Dell）及定制窗户安德森公司（Andersen Corp.）等。当客户能以合适的价格买到一些他们真正想要的产品后，就会对他们想要购买的任何产品都提出定制要求。家具作为一种耐用消费品，其功能不仅是物质的，也是精神的。人们在选购家具时更是具有个性化的需求。那么如何才能在低成本和快速响应市场的条件下保证家具产品的个性化和多样化呢？由于产品寿命周期内累计成本中的80%是由产品的设计决定的。对大规模定制而言，更为重要的是产品结构决定了产品成本的60%。低成本设计所遵循的前提是：成本是由设计决定的，尤其是很早期的概念设计决定的。因此对大规模定制下家具设计流程的探讨将有助于大规模定制家具成本的降低。

　　2.大规模定制的家具设计概念及设计人员

　　大规模定制下的设计是与大规模生产完全不同的设计方式，其设计人员也有别于其它生产模式下的人员组成。

　　2.1 大规模定制的家具设计概念

　　1996由Mitchell M提出的大规模定制设计的概念是：采用并行流程围绕产品族进行设计，以有效地满足客户需求。同理，大规模定制的家具设计采用并行设计模式，将产品设计分为两个过程：新产品开发和产品快速设计。

　　新产品开发过程　新产品开发面向品族进行，其目标是形成可变型的产品模型，建立完善的变型机制。产品开发人员通过分析已有的客户需求，预测未来的客户需求，对企业客户群进行宣传，在些基础上建立相应的客户品族结构，形成覆盖整个产品族功能要求的产品族可变型产品模型。

　　产品快速设计过程　产品快速设计是在可变型产品模型的基础上，结合客户的需求，以产品配置器为主要工具，进行产品快速配置，或通过对产品部分或局部的修改，进行相关功能、结构或参数的设计。

　　2.2 大规模定制的家具设计人员

　　大规模定制的家具设计人员并不是传统意义上的单纯的设计师个体，而是一个多功能的设计团队，包括设计工程师、经销商、财务代表、质检员、采购代表、供货商、法规协调专家、生产工人及其它项目代表。由于多功能设计团体集成了家具全生命周期涉及到的各个方面，他们在家具设计的早期阶段即参与到设计中，从各自的出发点对家具的设计提出问题并及时进行合理的解决，这样避免了在设计后期或设计成型后对产品的修改而导致的成本增加及服务质量下降等问题。

　　3.大规模定制家具的设计流程

　　大规模定制家具设计流程主要分为三个阶段：家具产品定义阶段、家具结构设计阶段和家具整体设计阶段。

　　3.1 家具产品定义阶段

　　完善的产品定义对产品开发是非常重要的。大规模定制模式下的家具产品定义以多功能设计团队为基础，综合考虑传统因素、营销因素、工厂因素、社会因素和环境因素，对产品族中的所有产品加以定义，从而更切实地反映市场需求。

　　家具产品定义主要是利用QFD（质量功能配置）法通过对用户需求（CR-Customer Requirements）、工程指标（EM-Engineering Metrics）、产品族（PF-Product Family）的映射将客户的消费需求转化为家具设计的详细说明和资源的优先顺序，将客户定性的描述转化为企业生产的定量指标。如图为大规模定制模式下的QFD。输入一系列客户的主观偏爱，如家具的风格、材料、功能、质量、价位等。按相对重要性顺序进行排列；请客户将当前的产品与竞争对手的产品按竞争力的大小进行排列，将结果列入“客户的感觉”里面。在“客观的工程性能衡量”中对本厂的产品和被客户排到前面的竞争对手的产品进行定量测量，将结果写入“被测性能”中。就家具而言，人体工效学的各项参数是一定要列入目标衡量值的，其它如家具的结构参数、有害物含量等也可作为目标衡量值。“相关矩阵”将客户某个偏爱与工程性能影响关联起来，在方框内列出关联的等级。“冲突矩阵”列出与其它性能相冲突的性能，如何拆卸性是否在一定程度上影响家具的稳定性。然后输出设计的详细说明和资源的优先顺序，其中在“设计详细说明”的第一栏指出是由谁来进行定制的。通过对上限、下限及增长幅度的限定来确定家具各参数的变化情况。“资源的优先顺序”则显示设计团队应该在设计的各个方面投入的百分比。

　　通过QFD，在这个阶段应表达出家具新产品族的模块、标准零件、定制零件、定制配置和定制尺寸的各种不同组合。

　　3.2 家具结构设计阶段

　　家具结构设计阶段包括概念的简化和结构的优化，主要是家具模块化和确定家具定制生产的策略，即如何及何时对家具进行定制，确定是选择模块化的定制、可调节的定制还是参数化的定制。

　　模块化的定制（Modular）：模块是一些制造的基本元素，可通过各种不同的组合装配以实现产品的定制。家具可看作“基本模块＋专门模块＋接口”的组合体，例实木柜＝门＋抽屉＋框架＋板件＋其它部件＋连接件。进行模块化定制最重要的是要充分考虑到模块的通用性、易加工性等；尽量减少模块的种类，对家具进行适当的模块划分，降低制造的间接成本及供应链成本。

　　可调节的定制（adjustable）：可调节定制是一种可逆的定制产品的方法，分为家具自行调节和手工调节。家具自行调节是家具根据预先设置的程序感应客户的需求而自行调整。

　　手工调节是由工厂、经销商或客户设定，如办公椅的高度调节及倾仰调节。在进行可调节的定制时需对各个调节功能进行详细的设计，以免有与其它调节项目不相容的调节存在而降低产品的性能。

　　参数化的定制（dimensional）：参数化的定制包括一种永久性的适配、混合或切割，如家具的油漆、形状复杂的面等各种情况的定制。可以用手工或计算机数按设备（CNC）完成参数化的定制。参数化的定制应在工具通用化的基础上进行，以减少生产准备时间，降低间接成本。

　　由于此阶段将决定产品成本的60%，设计团队应在了解了产品的各种定制方法后，为产品族建立一个最佳的产品结构，即在模块化定制、可调节定制和参数化定制之间找到最佳的平衡，并决定由谁在何时进行定制。以带有装饰线条的衣柜为例，其板件、装饰件、抽屉、五金件可作为模块由工厂进行模块化定制，挂衣杆的高度变化可作为客户调节的可调节定制，而装饰线条则可用CNC机床进行参数化的定制。就企业而言，越能在产品生产周期的晚期进行定制就越能为企业提供柔性。

　　3.3 家具整体设计阶段

　　在对家具产品族进行定义并完成了结构设计后，就需对制造、采购和分销过程中的零件流、产品流和信息流进行综合考虑，建立完整的产品族。在这个阶段中多功能设计团体要综合考虑所有对设计产生影响的因素、功能、成本、客户的需求、定制的范围、产品族、可制造性、易维修性、模块之间的几何约束与物理约束、产品外观和安全性等。由于设计团队对产品族已有统一认识，则可并行完成以下工作：设计自制零件，确定外购零件；设计家具的装配形式，使其能够配置产品族中的所有产品类型；开发柔性的CAD/CAM，使CAD“模板”能随着客户或特殊需求的市场的输入而入时更新；创建订单客登录数据库或配置器，让销售、设计、制造和服务部门采用一致的方式反映企业能力和客户需求；开发打印定制文档的功能；实现柔性的加工过程和柔性的运输功能；将最佳零件流和产品流的规划融合到一个真正具有柔性的工厂中。

　　4.结　语

　　有关专家已通过市场扰动分析证明大规模定制在家具工业的实行是可行的和必然的。但大规模定制的实现是一个系统的实现，以我国家具工业的现状而言，还有很长的路要走，需要学术界和实业界的共同努力。本文仅从理论上对一般的大规模定制的家具设计流程进行了初步的探讨，在实际中不同规模的家具设计流程进行初步的探讨，在实际中不同规模的家具企业还需要区别对付，在实践中摸索出适合本企业独特的家具设计流程。

大规模定制家具设计流程初探

【转载自  http://www.365f.com  2004-2-3  《家具与室内装饰》 行淑敏　徐雪梅　陈健敏　】　

1.导言

　　大规模定制是近十几年来风靡国内外制造业的一种新的生产模式，它以低成本敏捷化的操作快速响应单个客户的需求，兼顾定制生产和大规模生产的优点。已有许多企业通过实施大规模定制获得了巨大的竞争优势，如生产牛仔裤的李维斯公司（Levi Strauss & Co.）、日本松下自行车公司、摩托罗拉、戴尔公司（Dell）及定制窗户安德森公司（Andersen Corp.）等。当客户能以合适的价格买到一些他们真正想要的产品后，就会对他们想要购买的任何产品都提出定制要求。家具作为一种耐用消费品，其功能不仅是物质的，也是精神的。人们在选购家具时更是具有个性化的需求。那么如何才能在低成本和快速响应市场的条件下保证家具产品的个性化和多样化呢？由于产品寿命周期内累计成本中的80%是由产品的设计决定的。对大规模定制而言，更为重要的是产品结构决定了产品成本的60%。低成本设计所遵循的前提是：成本是由设计决定的，尤其是很早期的概念设计决定的。因此对大规模定制下家具设计流程的探讨将有助于大规模定制家具成本的降低。

　　2.大规模定制的家具设计概念及设计人员

　　大规模定制下的设计是与大规模生产完全不同的设计方式，其设计人员也有别于其它生产模式下的人员组成。

　　2.1 大规模定制的家具设计概念

　　1996由Mitchell M提出的大规模定制设计的概念是：采用并行流程围绕产品族进行设计，以有效地满足客户需求。同理，大规模定制的家具设计采用并行设计模式，将产品设计分为两个过程：新产品开发和产品快速设计。

　　新产品开发过程　新产品开发面向品族进行，其目标是形成可变型的产品模型，建立完善的变型机制。产品开发人员通过分析已有的客户需求，预测未来的客户需求，对企业客户群进行宣传，在些基础上建立相应的客户品族结构，形成覆盖整个产品族功能要求的产品族可变型产品模型。

　　产品快速设计过程　产品快速设计是在可变型产品模型的基础上，结合客户的需求，以产品配置器为主要工具，进行产品快速配置，或通过对产品部分或局部的修改，进行相关功能、结构或参数的设计。

　　2.2 大规模定制的家具设计人员

　　大规模定制的家具设计人员并不是传统意义上的单纯的设计师个体，而是一个多功能的设计团队，包括设计工程师、经销商、财务代表、质检员、采购代表、供货商、法规协调专家、生产工人及其它项目代表。由于多功能设计团体集成了家具全生命周期涉及到的各个方面，他们在家具设计的早期阶段即参与到设计中，从各自的出发点对家具的设计提出问题并及时进行合理的解决，这样避免了在设计后期或设计成型后对产品的修改而导致的成本增加及服务质量下降等问题。

　　3.大规模定制家具的设计流程

　　大规模定制家具设计流程主要分为三个阶段：家具产品定义阶段、家具结构设计阶段和家具整体设计阶段。

　　3.1 家具产品定义阶段

　　完善的产品定义对产品开发是非常重要的。大规模定制模式下的家具产品定义以多功能设计团队为基础，综合考虑传统因素、营销因素、工厂因素、社会因素和环境因素，对产品族中的所有产品加以定义，从而更切实地反映市场需求。

　　家具产品定义主要是利用QFD（质量功能配置）法通过对用户需求（CR-Customer Requirements）、工程指标（EM-Engineering Metrics）、产品族（PF-Product Family）的映射将客户的消费需求转化为家具设计的详细说明和资源的优先顺序，将客户定性的描述转化为企业生产的定量指标。如图为大规模定制模式下的QFD。输入一系列客户的主观偏爱，如家具的风格、材料、功能、质量、价位等。按相对重要性顺序进行排列；请客户将当前的产品与竞争对手的产品按竞争力的大小进行排列，将结果列入“客户的感觉”里面。在“客观的工程性能衡量”中对本厂的产品和被客户排到前面的竞争对手的产品进行定量测量，将结果写入“被测性能”中。就家具而言，人体工效学的各项参数是一定要列入目标衡量值的，其它如家具的结构参数、有害物含量等也可作为目标衡量值。“相关矩阵”将客户某个偏爱与工程性能影响关联起来，在方框内列出关联的等级。“冲突矩阵”列出与其它性能相冲突的性能，如何拆卸性是否在一定程度上影响家具的稳定性。然后输出设计的详细说明和资源的优先顺序，其中在“设计详细说明”的第一栏指出是由谁来进行定制的。通过对上限、下限及增长幅度的限定来确定家具各参数的变化情况。“资源的优先顺序”则显示设计团队应该在设计的各个方面投入的百分比。

　　通过QFD，在这个阶段应表达出家具新产品族的模块、标准零件、定制零件、定制配置和定制尺寸的各种不同组合。

　　3.2 家具结构设计阶段

　　家具结构设计阶段包括概念的简化和结构的优化，主要是家具模块化和确定家具定制生产的策略，即如何及何时对家具进行定制，确定是选择模块化的定制、可调节的定制还是参数化的定制。

　　模块化的定制（Modular）：模块是一些制造的基本元素，可通过各种不同的组合装配以实现产品的定制。家具可看作“基本模块＋专门模块＋接口”的组合体，例实木柜＝门＋抽屉＋框架＋板件＋其它部件＋连接件。进行模块化定制最重要的是要充分考虑到模块的通用性、易加工性等；尽量减少模块的种类，对家具进行适当的模块划分，降低制造的间接成本及供应链成本。

　　可调节的定制（adjustable）：可调节定制是一种可逆的定制产品的方法，分为家具自行调节和手工调节。家具自行调节是家具根据预先设置的程序感应客户的需求而自行调整。

　　手工调节是由工厂、经销商或客户设定，如办公椅的高度调节及倾仰调节。在进行可调节的定制时需对各个调节功能进行详细的设计，以免有与其它调节项目不相容的调节存在而降低产品的性能。

　　参数化的定制（dimensional）：参数化的定制包括一种永久性的适配、混合或切割，如家具的油漆、形状复杂的面等各种情况的定制。可以用手工或计算机数按设备（CNC）完成参数化的定制。参数化的定制应在工具通用化的基础上进行，以减少生产准备时间，降低间接成本。

　　由于此阶段将决定产品成本的60%，设计团队应在了解了产品的各种定制方法后，为产品族建立一个最佳的产品结构，即在模块化定制、可调节定制和参数化定制之间找到最佳的平衡，并决定由谁在何时进行定制。以带有装饰线条的衣柜为例，其板件、装饰件、抽屉、五金件可作为模块由工厂进行模块化定制，挂衣杆的高度变化可作为客户调节的可调节定制，而装饰线条则可用CNC机床进行参数化的定制。就企业而言，越能在产品生产周期的晚期进行定制就越能为企业提供柔性。

　　3.3 家具整体设计阶段

　　在对家具产品族进行定义并完成了结构设计后，就需对制造、采购和分销过程中的零件流、产品流和信息流进行综合考虑，建立完整的产品族。在这个阶段中多功能设计团体要综合考虑所有对设计产生影响的因素、功能、成本、客户的需求、定制的范围、产品族、可制造性、易维修性、模块之间的几何约束与物理约束、产品外观和安全性等。由于设计团队对产品族已有统一认识，则可并行完成以下工作：设计自制零件，确定外购零件；设计家具的装配形式，使其能够配置产品族中的所有产品类型；开发柔性的CAD/CAM，使CAD“模板”能随着客户或特殊需求的市场的输入而入时更新；创建订单客登录数据库或配置器，让销售、设计、制造和服务部门采用一致的方式反映企业能力和客户需求；开发打印定制文档的功能；实现柔性的加工过程和柔性的运输功能；将最佳零件流和产品流的规划融合到一个真正具有柔性的工厂中。

　　4.结　语

　　有关专家已通过市场扰动分析证明大规模定制在家具工业的实行是可行的和必然的。但大规模定制的实现是一个系统的实现，以我国家具工业的现状而言，还有很长的路要走，需要学术界和实业界的共同努力。本文仅从理论上对一般的大规模定制的家具设计流程进行了初步的探讨，在实际中不同规模的家具设计流程进行初步的探讨，在实际中不同规模的家具企业还需要区别对付，在实践中摸索出适合本企业独特的家具设计流程。

    【转载自：http://prdm.net/xoops/】

     越来越多的企业开始关心和谈论"大规模定制"，以为其中包含着巨大商机。然而，调查研究发现，它的有效性、适用度是值得质疑的。对产品和服务的差异化需求是具有普遍性的，但"大规模定制"只是满足这种需求的方式之一，而且是可行性相当有限的一种方式。许多被标榜为"大规模定制"的生产，实际上要么属于小规模定制，要么属于大规模生产具有可调幅度的产品。

     大规模定制是一个令人困惑又令人激动的概念，因为它是由以前认为不可调和的两个概念组成的：大规模生产和个性化定制。长久以来，人们在下述两个战略之间进行艰难地权衡和选择：要么提供大规模地生产的标准化的低成本的产品或服务，要么提供客户化的或高度差异化的小规模生产的产品或服务，当然成本相对也较高。换言之，人们必须在高效率的大规模生产和特殊的创新性产品之间二者择一。然而，大规模定制宣布：不用权衡了，在互联网和计算机技术的帮助之下，我们可以同时实现上述两个目标，用低成本大规模生产的产品满足来客户个性化的需求。

     然而，自从约瑟夫·派因（Joseph Pine Ⅱ）1992年出版《大规模定制--商业竞争的新前沿》（Mass Customization--The New Frontier in Business Competition）一书，1993年与人合作在《哈佛商业评论》发表论文《使大规模定制发挥作用》（Making Mass Customization Work）以来，已近十年时间已经过去了，真正实现了大规模定制的企业和产品种类都非常罕见！个中缘由在于，大规模定制事实上要求企业具有一些独特的运作能力，而且也不是对于所有的产品都适合。

大规模定制系统三个关键的能力

     大规模定制系统需要三个关键的能力：客户需求采集（Elicitation）、生产流程的柔性(Process Flexibility)以及物流(Logistics)的支持。

     在大规模定制系统中需要采集客户以下四个方面的信息：客户的身份，如名字和地址；客户对所提供的可选择的菜单的选择；物理性的测量以及客户对模型的反应。客户需求采集非常困难，原因在于：第一，客户往往不知道他们真正要什么，他们很容易被商店的货架上或网站的网页上大量的可选项给弄糊涂, 约瑟夫·派因称这种现象为"信息超载"；第二，为客户提供的可选择的菜单也并不是一件易事，因为必须通过这个可选的菜单收集到客户真正的需求，这一方面是科学，另一方面也是艺术。道·琼斯所提供的大规模定制服务就被指责为：如其说它是以客户所要求的方式将客户真正所需要的产品传递给他们，还不如说是道·琼斯将自己认为的客户化的产品灌输给其客户；第三，目前，物理性测量大多是采取成本高昂的手工系统来实现的。例如，如果想得到定制的列维·斯特劳斯（Levi Strauss）牌的裤子，首先你要到列维·斯特劳斯的商店里选择你想要的式样和布料，并且试穿一件或多件样衣，然后商店的员工再将你的信息录入到计算机中。当然其中的一些程序将来可能采用自动的系统，如列维·斯特劳斯公司正在试用一种光学扫描器来测量人们的身体尺寸，目前这种设备仍然处在试验阶段，并且其进展很慢而也需要较大的投入。

     生产流程的柔性的创新包括模块化设计、精益生产、信息技术以及数控制造设备的使用。但不幸的是，并不是所有的产业都同样能分享这些革新。而且，对于每一个产业来说，也只有某些特定的流程达到了足够的柔性，因此只有某些特定的产品特性能够客户化。例如，列维·斯特劳斯公司就没有提供颜色定制的服务，因为现有的印染技术还不能支持大规模定制。有趣的是，1998年的一个调查显示，四家自行车生产厂家提供了完全不同的四种个性化定制服务，而造成这种现象的部分原因是它们各自拥有不同的专门的流程技术。一个流程能否进行大规模定制关键在于这个流程中包括几个维度，维度越多，进行大规模定制就越困难。只有一个维度的高尔夫球球杆是最成熟的大规模定制的产品之一，它对于客户和生产厂商来说最关键的信息都只有一个，即球杆的长度。在只有一个维度的时候，流程具有相当高的柔性，也易于适用数控技术。但是当一个流程达到或多于三个维度的时候，其柔性就会很差。例如，数控机床虽然能生产三个维度的产品，但是这种产品必须是旋转对称的，如棒球和桌子脚等。

     物流并不仅仅是困扰大规模定制的一个难题，事实上它也是进行所有的电子商务（如B2C、B2B等等）所面临的问题。例如，在1999年圣诞节期间，甚至Toys "R" Us（一家特别擅长传统分销的公司）也经历了其分销系统的崩溃。当然，电子物流技术（包括互联网、自动库存系统以及包裹送递服务等）的发展，将会使得物流越来越适合大规模定制的要求。今天物流业所面临的挑战也正是象联邦快运和UPS这样的第三方物流企业的机会。

     一个大规模定制系统要发挥作用，不是说客户需求采集、生产流程的柔性以及物流这三方面单独发挥其功能，而是三者必须紧密联系形成一个整体。

谁需要以及谁会提供定制化产品

     大规模定制的狂热的支持者声称任何人在任何地方任何时候都有定制化的需求，然而，我们看到，支持这种说法的证据不过是一些传奇性的故事。一个关于在线的定制汽车的例子并不能证明这种事情会有庞大的市场。我们应当问一下，什么样的定制产品今天有市场，以及它为什么有市场。

     大多数的定制产品基本上是一些新奇的事物。它们的出现在于其娱乐价值和令人感到新奇。例如在肥皂上刻上你的名字或者在饼干上画上你的头像等。这种产品的价值从本质上看肯定只是昙花一现。

     客户当然也会需要差异化的产品，但是人们在这个产品的某些特性上的偏好必需有明显的不同，唯有如此，定制才能真正为客户创造价值。服装业是一个典型的例子，人们对服装是否合身非常看重，并且区别也相当明显。

     一个市场是否具有商业价值必然要考虑其容量，因此任何一种产品如果具有更为定制化的特色都会卖得更好的假设，完全是一个错误。

     今天，我们确实能够找到一些定制（但不是大规模定制）的产品，但是并没有一种是大规模生产的。现在那些声称自己在大规模定制产品的公司其实都是小规模生产定制化的产品。约瑟夫·派因在《大规模定制》中所提到的大规模定制产品或服务，事实上不是小规模定制就是多样化的一些产品或服务。

只是满足差异化需求的一种方法

     我们不应该被大规模定制的美丽的光环所迷惑，因为它存在许多局限性：首先，它要求生产技术高度的柔性，发展这种技术成本高昂并且相当费时，而且一些流程相对更易数字化和柔性化，如信息处理、印刷以及裁剪钢材做高尔夫球杆等；其次，它需要一个高度精密的系统来采集客户的需求；第三，它需要一个强大的客户导向的物流系统；第四，人们并不愿给任何定制产品额外付钱。

     大规模定制实际上只是满足客户差异化需求的一种方法。传统的大规模生产也同样可以通过提供几种不同的产品和可以调节的产品来实现。可调节性的产品是一个单一的标准化的产品，它完全可以利用传统的大规模系统生产和分销。事实上，几年以前，人们在谈论定制汽车的时候，丰田公司甚至在其丰田汽车城的展示中心建立了一个汽车座位测量的模型，但是它从来也没有派上用场。相反，可调节座位发展极为迅速，因为与定制的座位相比，它更为便宜。另一个例子是办公设备。一套桌椅有十几种组装方法，其用户手册对之进行了详细的说明，因而用户可以根据自身的要求组装成不同的高度和形状。约瑟夫·派因本人也指出，吉列（Gillette）并没有试图开发各种各样的产品以适应不同的面部轮廓的各个细分市场，而是推出了传感器剃须刀，这种产品本身就能满足个性化需求。

     任何企业考虑实施大规模定制的战略时都应当仔细分析在客户需求采集、生产流程的柔性和物流这三方面自已的能力，以及将三者整合形成一个整体的能力。我们应当投资于那些具有潜在增长性和巨大定制需求的产品。是否这些产品具有一些客户有明确偏好的特性？与这些特性相联系的关键流程是什么？这些关键流程目前柔性如何？通过自己的努力又能将该流程的柔性提高到什么程度？产品多样化能不能满足客户的个性化需求？产品能不能进行重新设计而使之具有可调节性或者本身就能实现个性化？新的信息技术能给这种差异化带来什么机会？对这些问题的研究将问答你是否要实行大规模定制的战略。